Did I catch a leak onto my ceiling early or am I reading to much into this? : HomeImprovement

I noticed this discolored spot on my ceiling today. I’m worried it might be a leak, looking for thoughts and recommendations. Info:

  • spot is right below upstairs toilet

  • spot does not feel soggy by forceful press of finger

  • spot feels cooler than surrounding areas – suggesting water evaporation but the wall faces outside so coldness could be insulation gap..?

  • no history of painting or change that ceiling area that we know of, but we purchased house 2.5 years ago

  • spot has subtle halo around it that I’ve seen when drywall stucco dries

  • I did replace the toilet seal 2.5 years ago.

  • Checked bathroom area found no visible water

  • Ran paper towel around base edge of toilet to see if it came up as damp, it did not

  • Based on water movement sounds during flushing the toilets, waste pipe may run in that area

  • House is 25 years old in Michigan

Worried that I have a drip leak of some kind. I think I’ll pull the toilet off tomorrow and see if this reveals anything.

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