What’s wrong with my Poor Plaster Ceiling : HomeImprovement

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I’m at wits end. I thought moisture, but from where? I talked to an attic person (main attic doesn’t extend over bathroom can’t see), a couple painters, and a plaster guy. They have said:

-A couple said they think there is no external water–but maybe old. Reasoning was no discoloration on the finish plaster layer. Layer is dry (you can see the exposed finish coat with the paint peeled away). I thermal imaged and moisture metered it and it appeared normal
-Plaster guy said roof leak at some point (see second roof image)–and I’m giving him the most credence given he’s a plaster guy despite the evidence above
-Other options are condensation from no insulation (thermal imaging says likely not), or from inefficient bathroom fan/which may or may not be vented (but appears vented from roof shot, window doesn’t fog–HOWEVER after really hot showers the walls are damp and in some areas its enough for droplets to run down the sloped ceiling)

What should I do next? I’m going to try to get a roofer, but I’m just unsure at everything

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